Covert Operations and Military Cooperation between Russia and Venezuela

Russia and Venezuela have a long-standing strategic alliance, with military and economic cooperation being a key component.¹ While specifics on "covert operations" are often kept from the public, their cooperation has included:

• Arms Sales and Support: Venezuela has been a major customer for Russian arms, purchasing billions of dollars in military equipment, including fighter jets (like the Sukhoi Su-30MK2), helicopters, air defense systems (like the Buk-M2E and Igla-S), and small arms (like the AK-103 assault rifle).²

  • Maintenance and Logistics: The Venezuelan government has recently requested Russian assistance to repair and overhaul its existing Russian-made military equipment, including aircraft engines, radars, and to supply new missiles.³

• Military Exercises and Presence: Russia has historically sent military assets, including Tupolev Tu-160 (nuclear-capable) bombers and warships, to Venezuela for joint military exercises in the Caribbean, a move often seen as a geopolitical signal to the United States.⁴

• Advisers and Specialists: Russia has provided military and technical specialists to Venezuela to help train their forces and maintain Russian-made military hardware.

• High-Level Strategic Agreements: The two nations continue to sign strategic partnership treaties, reaffirming their alliance in areas like defense, energy, and economy.⁵

• Recent Activity (Late 2025): There have been reports of Russian transport aircraft—one of which has been linked to arms trafficking and mercenary transportation—landing in Caracas amidst heightened tensions with the U.S., suggesting ongoing logistical or military support.⁶

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Wagner Group Operations in Venezuela

The presence and operations of the Wagner Group (a Russian state-funded private military company, now largely absorbed into the official military structure like the "Russian Africa Corps") in Venezuela have been reported, but their exact scope is often unclear and officially denied by the Kremlin.⁷

• Role: The primary reported role of Wagner-linked personnel, if present, is providing security and military support for the administration of Nicolás Maduro.⁸ This could involve protecting government officials, critical infrastructure, or training Maduro's security forces.

• Speculation and Evidence: Recent events, such as the landing of an Il-76 military transport aircraft—a type historically used by the Wagner Group—in Caracas, have fueled speculation about the delivery of military cargo or the movement of Wagner-linked personnel to the region.⁹

• Goal: The deployment of private military contractors like Wagner in other parts of the world has typically served as a way for Russia to extend its geopolitical influence while maintaining plausible deniability for its actions.¹⁰

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The Role of Donald Trump's "Bluffs" and U.S. Policy

Your question touches on the perception that U.S. policy toward Venezuela during the Trump administration involved a lot of strong rhetoric but may not have resulted in concrete, lasting change in Venezuela's government.

Concrete Actions by the U.S. (Trump Administration):

• "Maximum Pressure" Sanctions: The Trump administration dramatically escalated sanctions, targeting Venezuela's vital oil industry, the Central Bank, and numerous individuals and entities, intending to economically pressure the Maduro regime to cede power.¹¹

• Recognition of the Opposition: The U.S. ceased recognizing Nicolás Maduro as the legitimate president and instead recognized the opposition-controlled National Assembly, and later its leaders (like Juan Guaidó, and more recently Edmundo González), as the "rightful government."¹²

• Covert Action and Military Presence: In his second term, President Trump confirmed authorizing covert CIA operations in Venezuela.¹³ The U.S. also increased its military presence in the Caribbean, conducting what it termed "anti-drug trafficking operations" (including lethal strikes on vessels), which Venezuelan and some international observers viewed as a pretext for military escalation.¹⁴

• Bounties and Designations: The U.S. doubled the reward offered for information leading to Maduro's arrest for alleged drug trafficking and designated a Venezuela-origin gang (Tren de Aragua) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.¹⁵

Perception of "Bluffs" and Unfulfilled Goals:

Despite the "maximum pressure" campaign, bounties, and military signals:

• Regime Change Did Not Occur: The main goal—forcing Maduro to step down and restore democracy—was not achieved. Maduro remains in power, backed by his security forces and international allies like Russia, China, and Iran.¹⁶

• Rhetoric vs. Action: Critics argued that the very public, often aggressive rhetoric (including hints of military intervention and "all options are on the table") created high expectations for swift change that were never met, potentially allowing the Maduro government to consolidate its position and rally nationalist support against perceived U.S. aggression.

• Limited Long-Term Effect: While sanctions severely damaged the Venezuelan economy, they did not translate into a political transition, leading to the perception that the U.S. efforts were often more rhetorical than effective in changing the regime.¹⁷