The current global landscape (January 2026) is characterized by a "Great Realignment" where traditional alliances are being replaced by a more fragmented, transactional, and sovereign-focused order.
The combination of a disruptive U.S. foreign policy and the rise of regional "middle-power" blocs has moved the world from a unipolar or even bipolar system toward a multipolarity of convenience.
1. The Fragmentation of Sovereignty (The "Trump Effect")
The second Trump administration has fundamentally altered the concept of "rules-based order" by prioritizing bilateral deals over multilateral norms.
Territorial Transactions: In early 2026, the renewal of claims over territories like Greenland and the "capture" of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela have signaled to the world that the post-WWII norm against territorial conquest and sovereign interference is fraying.
Institutional Withdrawal: By withdrawing from over 60 international organizations, the U.S. has created a "global vacuum." This is not an isolationist move, but a "transactional-interventionist" one, where sovereignty is respected only as long as it aligns with U.S. economic interests (e.g., tariffs and trade deals).
2. The Rise of "Sovereignty Blocs" (Sahel and the Tri-Axis)
New blocs are emerging not as ideological clones of the West or China, but as shields for regional autonomy.
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES): Formed by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, this bloc represents a "Decolonial Realpolitik." By launching a unified military force (FU AES) and exiting ECOWAS in 2025, they have signaled that regional security will no longer be outsourced to Western powers (like France). They prioritize security-first sovereignty and are increasingly turning to Russia, Turkey, and China for hardware without "human rights strings" attached.
The Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Axis: This trilateral defense draft (formalizing in early 2026) is a landmark shift. It combines Saudi capital, Turkish defense technology, and Pakistani strategic depth. This "Sunni Middle-Power Bloc" seeks to reduce dependence on the U.S. security umbrella while creating a counterweight to both Iran and Indian influence, operating independently of both Washington and Beijing.
3. BRICS+ as a Parallel Global Governance
BRICS has moved from an economic talk-shop to a protagonist of "De-dollarization" and "Alternative Diplomacy."
Institutional Weight: With the addition of Indonesia, Egypt, the UAE, and Ethiopia, BRICS+ now represents over 37% of global GDP (PPP), surpassing the G7.
Financial Autonomy: The New Development Bank (NDB) and the push for local-currency trade are no longer theoretical. In 2025-2026, countries like Brazil and Colombia have utilized BRICS as "diplomatic insurance" against U.S. sanctions or trade pressure.
New Political Tendencies
Transactional Alignment: Countries no longer "pick a side" permanently. They may use Turkish drones, Saudi money, and Chinese infrastructure while still trading with the U.S.
Regional Hegemony: Middle powers (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Brazil) are acting as "micro-poles," managing their own neighborhoods without seeking permission from great powers.
The Erosion of Universalism: Universal "Western" values are being replaced by "civilizational values," where each bloc (Sahel, BRICS, Islamic Axis) defines its own internal governance norms.
Bibliographic References (Key Theses & Analysis)
Fazal, Tanisha (2025). The Return of Territorial Conquest. University of Minnesota (On the erosion of sovereignty norms).
Stuenkel, Oliver (2024/25). Post-Western World: Reassessing the BRICS+.* (Analysis of BRICS as a "parallel" rather than "subversive" order).
Vinjamuri, Leslie (2026). "Trump 2.0 and the Disruption of Global Alliances." Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Billion, Didier (2026). "Changes in the Geopolitical Balance: The Rise of Middle Powers." IRIS France.
Spatafora, Giuseppe (2025). Low Trust: Navigating Transatlantic Relations under Trump 2.0. EU Institute for Security Studies.
